Nouriel Roubini the Macroeconomist Extraordinaire

(Time)

The opportunities for global growth on a sustained basis are quite positive. Right now the basic building block of global demand , the US consumer, is faltering; therefore there is a lack of aggregate demand relative to supply. The supply has been rising because China and emerging markets have been investing so much in new factories and new productive capacity. A lack of demand relative to excess supply–that’s what the global recession is.

You have to have a complete rebalancing of the global economy. The global imbalances are not sustainable anymore.

(From Dec. 2009 issue of GQ)

I have spoken before of how I believed there existed a very real danger of slipping into a depression economy or have the “double-dip” recession model enacted upon us. I believe the danger still exists but there are many signs pointed in the other direction as well.

Roubini speaks of an “L-shaped” model in terms of his predictions for American economic recovery, and I think he holds the most accurate take on economics available. The “double-dip” is the “W-shaped” model that I spoke of before and it looks like the “L” or perhaps the optimistic “elongated U” are the far more likely graph of US economic growth.

The media calls him “Dr Doom,” and I guess that makes me “Dr Doom Jr” because I am less optimistic that we will balance the global economy. But if there was ever any question as where I get my economics, I would have to cite Roubini.

Let us not forget that he predicted the housing market burst and the coming of the global economic recession. It is important to hear what he has to say at this stage and I find it strange how often his assessment mirrors my own:

Roubini’s Three Major Concerns about current US Economy

The banks that “still have bad assets weighing on them, remain unable and unwilling to lend.”

The “US households that are increasingly indebted and decreasingly employed.”

The corporations that are “improving balance sheets by cutting jobs and cutting costs other than increasing revenue.”

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The big question here:

Why in the years and months before the economic crisis was it only “bubble bloggers,” Roubini and a handful of Democrats who warned of the coming housing market bubble bursting and the resulting recession from the burst?

There is no question that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke responded aptly to the situation and that the Congressional bailout measures were indeed necessary. What remains to be seen is if the same people who would so readily jump to rescue a sinking economy would have the foresight to see the coming of a “double-dip” recession or if they would warn of it if indeed they did. I believe many financial “experts” are people who only understand talking-up the market and have long since given up on objective assessments on economics.

What Was Nancy Pelosi Crying About?

Something dangerous that is easily used for ill. Something we see running wild in right-wing politics.

But before we get to that we have to retrace our steps to around the time we experienced the recent global economic meltdown:

1. After lowering taxes, starting two wars, and doing nothing to warn of the coming recession, former President George W. Bush engaged in a government spending program giving out a Stimulus Check to people like myself who are not making any money. Then he bailed out the banks, and we lost a good chunk of the “TARP” money in the exchange for his efforts.

2. Unsubstantiated claims about The President of the United States Barack Hussein Obama ranging from claims that he has a falsified birth-record, to claims that he was secretly of Islamic faith, to claims that he was a cloaked dictator, to claims that he was involved in the disaster of the Bush Presidency, to claims that he was trying to forcibly legislate an increase abortions, to claims that he was being dishonest in his Address on Health Care to Congress. Even with nothing but wild conjecture, oppositional profiling, and personal bias behind all these claims they are still touted across the so-called “news” media.

3. The first round of “tea parties” was thrown only after President Obama began the Obama Stimulus, and despite their claims they were funded by GOP big-money thus most certainly were not a “grass roots” movement. The second round of “tea parties” has been mainly hijacked by FOX News & Glenn Beck with his “9/12 Protest” on Washington. Just like before they claim their problem is “taxation” but they neglected to protest when the previous president took actions that, under their own logic, would lead to higher taxation through “bail out policy” and a “stimulus program”.

4. Outright violence, the brandishing of firearms, the direct rejection of direct reading of proposed legislation, and extreme levels of verbal hostility toward Pro-Reform activities was the true end result of the national debate on health care via town hall meetings across this country. There has been an electronic publicly conveyed death threat against the president and a Federal Census worker has been brutally slain under highly dubious circumstances that may amount exactly to the kind of anti-government rhetoric the right-wing is promoting so avidly.

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So what was Nancy Pelosi crying about?

Populism is on the rise in North America.

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The worst kind of Populism that exists, the purely fascist brand of populist-thought.

It revolves around thinking that all not in agreement with you must be “indoctrinated” or “flawed” and that you and those who associate with your thinking have the purest-form of all logic.

This fascist-mentality, when mixed with elements of pure populism, makes for an atmosphere of violence. What is worse yet is there is no true agenda to this brand of Populism that we see before us today.

They quite clearly only wish to attack the Obama White House and have no real set goal beyond constant smears as can we clearly seen by the fact that if they got Obama out of office that Joe Biden would be president, and after him Nancy Pelosi.

So they wouldn’t be pleased with even two supposed impeachment proceedings, they would have to go for three and I assume try to install John Boehner. This entire movement has reached a point that it is and actual danger to our society.

Because it is Populism without Peace, it is a form of Populism I can never associate with.

I dream of a day when people could come together and settle many differences as respectful and honest citizens of this great nation, and on that day I would speak of Populism being a good thing. An element that drives democracy and brings people to the table. Something that can enhance our understanding of one another as we come together on common goals. Such a day when we could throw away political parties, or perhaps introduce more, fresh ideas into the national dialogue and power structures of Washington.

But that day is not today.

There is no doubt.

What we see now is simply an anti-Obama crusade of populist-rhetoric that is being used to spread inaccurate claims instead of reasonable discussion on facts.

Misused, as it has been in this case, Populism is a very dangerous thing.

However, the “Cash for Clunkers” program is an example of what I believe is the true essence of Populism. The majority agreed and all parties involved were satisfied of those who took part, and in the end populism ruled because the demand far exceeded the value.

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When something is truly good for the whole, and the majority wants it, a Liberal Populist like myself is working toward that end.

When something is only a benefit to the selective few, and loud minority wants it, a Fascist Populist like Glenn Beck is working only toward his own selfish ends.

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These are dark days in North America.

The lies continue to spread, the right-wing political-media continues to be corrupt, and people are buying more guns and ammunition than ever before.

This danger does not stop at Obama’s doorstep.

This threat is upon anyone they deem against them.

May God have mercy on all their souls.

Bernanke On The Record

“My goal is to talk to people outside the Beltway to hear what they are thinking, and do the best I can to explain what’s happening in the economy.”

Many people who care very little for facts have been saying a great deal of nonsensical words in regards to conspiracies and wild theories. In this time of historic actions being done by the government in what amounts to an expanse in federalism it is important to understand the truth of the matter and not allow yourself to be lead astray by people who care nothing for the truth and only seek to promote their own twisted agendas.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently did a open forum event hosted by PBS in which the public could ask him questions in regards to his job and the state of the American economy.

Reality Check: Economics in America

Let it be said that I am not bought off and not invested in how much money you make one way or the other.

I am one of last people on the web that is willing to tell the truth and attempt to remove all the shadowing and spin that resides over all that is the media.

Allow me to be plain:

We are headed for a depression.

I repeat this as a man with three businesses and a successful career in marketing said this statement to me.

A math teacher of high credentials has said to same to me in the past year.

You won’t hear this from the bought and paid for economists who sat on their hands and let our economy crumble beneath us as they remained mute.

While the word ‘depression’ in regards to economics is about to appear on the FFC Banned Words List there is much to be understood about what awaits us.

I’ll remove as much jargon as I can.

The economy will go up. But then it will come back down again.

They call me a “W” in terms of my economic perspective in that I believe we will regain strength in the market in coming quarters. But I think these will be temporary gains and ultimately we will fall back into a recession cycle that will lead to a depression.

Most media economists tell you that they are a “V” which to me just denotes that they are blindly optimistic or much more likely bought and paid for.

Some maintain that there will be no improvement and they are labeled the “L‘s”.

And some still think we will have gradual and slow recovery that is unhampered and they are labeled as “U‘s”.

Anyone like myself who speaks of a forthcoming American Depression would squarely fit into the “W” or the “L” camps.

However, the notion that all hope is lost is a false one.

Most of us ‘money-savvy’ people already know that fortunes can be made in depressions and that the wealth of the nation will not dissolve into thin air but rather will be distributed down to the people who have the intelligence and the foresight to take advantage of the downturn.

This is just a sliver-lining though. Each family should take real steps right away to build up the value of your home, maximize your portfolio and be prudent about major expenses.

But it’s important to realize that if we are going to prove me, a math teacher and a successful business man wrong that this nation will have to refocus itself on consumer spending.
If all of America continues to tighten it’s belt in this endless fashion then you begin to see why some predict this outcome at a latter date. Most say about three years and I would estimate a little longer span of time but the same end result.

eTrade and the Recession

I have been intentionally over-paying those little everyday expenses like tipping and things like not using the local ‘insider’ coupon clip.

It’s been awhile for me personally since I bought a product online, but supporting eTrade is another way is try to do your little part to shoot some life into the economy while your online.

I plan to buy the next gift for someone special via online.

Net-Trade is complex for the ordinary consumer to understand but there are multiple ways to support domain hosts, web loggers, local businesses and local markets.

Change starts at home.

Making your home more energy efficient in every way possible is a sound investment. Energy costs are not likely to drop in any foreseeable future.

This is just one of many steps I suggest you take to affect real change in your local environment and community.

The federal government can only do so much. Each bailout and stimulus they devise will ultimately fail if the Consumer Markets do not participate.

We need to take the time to educate ourselves enough as citizens to better understand our role at this stage in our national economy.

We all can make some difference.

We all can effect some amount change within our respective spheres.

Boom and Bail Economy

“Boom and Bust” economies are easy enough to understand but I wonder if many Americans have come to have a grasp on what exactly this previous economic model that hopefully will be forever trashed exactly is and should be termed.

“Boom and Bail” as coined by Naomi Klein.

We all on a “economic-boat.” Certain people aboard created holes of corruption with their corrupt practices.

As we take on water and the earnest crew members try to salvage the situation there is much need to look around at those we pass the buckets to.

Which of them bore the holes? Which of them would yet still commit folly at the heavy cost to us all?

I threw my lot in with the new captain and I remain behind his strategy.

We are the most epic and monolithic vessel ever to sail these seas. Our efforts would only naturally appear preposterous and outlandish to our counterparts who suffered the same storm as we.

We must remain steadfast. Do our bit and make our voice known.

Nothing more. Nothing less.

Allowing the Boom and Bail Economy to repeat its course would result in nothing but a trip to the bottom of the ocean.

These Days

These days people are angry. Caught in the suck of an economy we didn’t break.

Caught in the sights of the twisted and sick. Trampled by the greedy. Crushed by the powerful.

We are stronger than we would ever believe here in America.

As long as we stand together and fight the good fight … we will always succeed.

The R-Word

Recession; In the span of no more a few months the word is now ‘fair game’ in America.

An American Recession, no less. After only a handful months these two words can be freely connected in advertisements and in public media formats.

This after a time in which any Democrat or liberal spoke of a coming recession they were dismissed as ‘kooks’ and ‘doomsayers.’

I was one of those ’doomsayers.’ And I was right.

While the prevailing wisdom is to downplay a sick economy and a weak dollar I do not believe this to be the correct course of action.

If the economy is sick, we should know about it.

If the dollar is about to drop, we should know about it.

If a stock is about to devalue, we should know about it.

And on, and on.

I believe that one of the reasons we have suffered this recession is due to this very mentality combining with the ‘greed is good’ mentality.

A broadcaster, a stock quote broker, a banker or an economic journalist has no benefit to being truthful to their audience and every benefit to simply remaining mute. Or worse yet, talking up a business, stock or concept that they know to be unsound.

The idea that saying into a camera or many media outlet the raw truth of the economy as being a detriment to that economy is false.

The investors and consumers need to be able to make informed decisions. If those trusted to give honest and credible advise are proven to simply communicate in a ’one answer only’ situation then the reality of market hazards remain the sole property of those already succeeding in market endeavors.

Leaving us, the common people, out in the rain.

 

Eric Lightborn

http://ericlightborn.blogspot.com

March 29th 2009

Caps-Lock Engaged America

“populist outcry”

“socialist agenda”

“economic outrage”

We are hear these words connected in the Big Buzz of the Media, lately.

We live in a state of economic chaos. Right now, today.

As an internet-blogger I call this state we exist in “Caps-Lock Engaged America.”

My need to translate everything into internet terminology is no doubt why I prefer this way of describing the current state of affairs in America.

These pundits and talk show hosts of the right wing seek to drum up fear in the public, nothing more.

In the absence of logical arguments they simply wish their audiences to suspend all logic and proceed to believe in conspiracies.

The left wing is busying itself with AIG-Hate while shunning these new Populists as madmen and radicals. We are neither.

These are the very same kind of ‘madmen’ and ‘radicals’ who helped to form the Democratic Party of our day, but I digress.

There is no shame in being upset. But direct your anger.

President George W. Bush spent this country broke as if it was his personal play-thing to abuse and mistreat as he would.

One of the primary functions of a President of the United States of America is to be a Steward of the American Economy.

The previous President not only failed in this, he failed so miserably that his actions in this area specifically are in fact criminal.

President Bush had an obligation to use his position to inform America of the coming recession. Yet he joined in the chorus of conservatives who claimed all was well in the economic seas.

The ’proper’ blame doesn’t stop there.

The major leaders of financial institutions, those chairing relevant boards and countless figures in the media all failed in this exact same respect. 

These individuals had a duty to the American public to inform them of an impending crisis that would directly effect their home life and personal budget.

These individuals knowingly withheld information from investors and consumers in a clear effort to destroy any chances we had at mitigating the coming storm.

Some moved funds into bonds instead of stocks. Some transferred funds into foreign currencies. Some bought precious metal portfolios.

But many more simply did not know or would not listen to those like myself who warned of this coming American Recession.

 

Eric Lightborn

http://ericlightborn.blogspot.com

March 29th 2009

Anarchism Versus Populism

Ever reviled, accursed, ne’er understood,
Thou art the grisly terror of our age.
“Wreck of all order,” cry the multitude,
“Art thou, and war and murder’s endless rage.”
O, let them cry. To them that ne’er have striven.
The truth that lies behind a word to find,
To them the word’s right meaning was not given.
They shall continue blind among the blind.
But thou, O word, so clear, so strong, so pure.
Thou sayest all which I for goal have taken.
I give thee to the future! Thine secure.
When each at least unto himself shall waken.
Comes it in sunshine? In the tempest’s thrill?
I cannot tell — but it the earth shall see!
I am an Anarchist! Wherefore I will.
Not rule, and also ruled I will not be!
                       – John Henry Mackay

I draw your attention simply to the first nine lines of this quote, and have included it in it’s entirety for a full perspective.

I believe we have suffered this current Global / American Recession in a large part to the economic strategy of ‘greed is good’ and more specifically the enactment of Anarcho-Capitalism in our banking, mortgage and credits markets the United States of America.

A lack of sound order and a lack of logical policies, will only ultimately lead to a lack of accountability from authority.

A populist does not reject authority, or rule, outright. Rather a populist is prone to ask:

“By right to do govern? Whom do you serve?”

While I will express a degree of fondness for Pure Anarchism in which all property is outright theft … I find the whole ideology unworkable and only expressly attainable in small, sustainable, isolated communities. Much like Marxism is all looks good for an intellectual discussion and quid-pro-quo debating but in a real world setting the whole underlying concepts quickly become revealed as nothing but an ideologist’s dream work.

America of 2009 needs real solutions and not simply an outpouring of sentiment to ’make AIG pay you back’ but rather a hopeful outpouring of people willing to listen. People willing to engage.

The Presidency of Barack Obama is a stepping stone in a much larger and much longer road.

We must begin to demand the highest standards of our leaders on both Wall Street and Capitol Hill.

It is not not wrong to want justice. It is not wrong to want fairness. It is not wrong to question authority.

I am a Populist! Wherefore I will.
Not to rule, but to question the value of our rulers to us.